At the AISD Board of Trustees' information session on Monday, Feb. 10, trustees heard projections for student enrollment over the next 10 years.
Each year, the district commissions a demographic report. The information helps to identify and inform student population and enrollment trends, and how the trends may affect future student populations.
The district saw an increase in enrollment this year; however, the student population is projected to decline approximately 1% per year over the next five years.
The 10-year student projections provided by Templeton Demographics are based on both where students live and where they attend school.
City of Austin demographer Ryan Robinson was among those who addressed the board about the report and its projections.
“Enrollment is going to turn around in this district. The question is when. … It feels to me like it might be 7, 8, 9 years away,” Robinson said.
Rocky Gardiner, the primary author of the study, shared key findings of the report:
- For the first time since 2011–12, the district saw growth in student population (excluding out-of-district transfers) of 636 students, for a total population of 78,159 students.
- Student enrollment (including out-of-district transfers) increased by 764 students, for a total of 80,890 students. The most student growth was seen at the middle school level, particularly at eighth grade.
- For the fourth consecutive year, the district saw increases in the out-of-district transfers (a total of 2,732 students), which now account for more than 3% of total enrollment.
- For the first time in six years, the district saw small growth in kindergarten.
- Despite a 1% increase in enrollment this year, projections show an average 1% decrease annually for the next 10 years.
- The median home value in AISD (nearly $375,000) is roughly $15,000 more than surrounding districts.
- New home closings more than doubled in the past year, however, a many are condo and townhomes, which yield fewer students.
- AISD has lost more than 16,000 students to charter schools and other surrounding districts.
- There are 67 charter campuses within a 5-mile radius of AISD that enrolled more than 24,700 students in 2018-19.